Which denominator should win rate use?

It depends on what you're trying to show. Submitted-case win rate includes every case you fought, pending ones included, so it's a broader but often lower number. Decided-case win rate only counts cases with a final ruling, which usually pushes the percentage higher since it excludes unresolved cases entirely.

Do pending cases count?

Pending cases count toward submitted-case win rate but not toward decided-case win rate. They also count toward response rate, since a response was submitted, but they haven't yet contributed a win or loss to any win rate calculation.

Can response rate be too high?

Yes. A response rate near 100% can mean a team is fighting cases with weak evidence or cases past a reasonable cost-benefit threshold, just to keep the number high. A slightly lower response rate paired with a strong win rate often reflects better case selection.

What is a mature cohort?

A mature cohort is a group of cases old enough that nearly all of them have reached a final decision, with few or no cases still pending. Comparing win rates or recovery rates across cohorts of different maturity will distort your trend lines, since younger cohorts are missing a chunk of their eventual outcomes.

Chargeback Response Rate vs. Win Rate vs. Recovery Rate

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