You didn’t start a business to become a chargeback analyst, but here you are—digging through dispute logs and fraud reports while wondering why a valid customer claimed they never made a purchase. Chargebacks used to be an occasional issue. Today, they’re a recurring threat, and if you don’t understand where the numbers are going, you’re already playing catch-up.
We dug through the most current, credible sources to give you a clear look at what’s happening in 2025 with the chargeback statistics that matter.
Chargebacks Are Growing Fast (and Globally)
Disputes are increasing every year. According to a recent report by Juniper Research, global chargeback volumes are on pace to reach 337 million cases by the end of 2025, up from an estimated 265 million in 2022. That’s a 27% increase in just three years, with most of that growth tied to digital purchases and rising fraud pressure on card-not-present (CNP) transactions.
More people are shopping online, and more customers are initiating disputes when they don’t recognize a charge or don’t receive a product quickly enough. The shift toward same-day fulfillment and subscription billing has also reduced the margin for error. If anything in your process breaks down, the cardholder has an easy path to file a dispute.
Average Chargeback Rates by Industry
Across all industries, the average chargeback rate now hovers around 0.65%, but that number doesn’t tell the whole story. Rates vary widely depending on what you sell, how you sell it, and how strong your customer communication is.
Here’s what 2025 looks like by vertical, using recent data from the Merchant Risk Council and card network compliance bulletins:
According to the Merchant Risk Council, any rate above 1% typically raises red flags with acquirers and card brands. Crossing that threshold could land your business in Visa’s Dispute Monitoring Program or Mastercard’s Excessive Chargeback Program, both of which increase fees and require corrective action plans.
Friendly Fraud Is Now the Leading Cause
Most merchants expect fraud to come from outsiders using stolen cards. That’s still a problem, but first-party fraud is now the bigger issue. According to the 2024 Federal Reserve Payments Study, roughly 61% of chargebacks are caused by cardholders themselves, even when the transaction was valid.
These disputes fall under the category of “friendly fraud.” A customer might forget they made the purchase, or decide to skip your return policy by calling their bank instead. Even well-meaning cardholders can accidentally trigger a dispute if your brand name looks unfamiliar on their bank statement.
Top Chargeback Reason Codes in 2025
According to the Electronic Transactions Association (ETA), most chargebacks fall into four common buckets. These vary by card brand, but the themes are consistent:
- Product or Service Not Received (e.g. Visa 13.1, Mastercard 4855)
Shipping delays, out-of-stock items, or vague delivery timelines often lead to these claims.
- Unauthorized Transaction or Suspected Fraud (e.g. Visa 10.4, Mastercard 4837)
Even if the cardholder made the purchase, they can claim it wasn’t them, especially if your statement descriptor is unclear.
- Refund Not Processed (e.g. Visa 13.6, Mastercard 4860)
These disputes typically happen when your refund process takes longer than a few business days.
- Subscription or Cancelation Issues (e.g. Visa 13.2, Mastercard 4841)
Auto-renewals without proper reminders continue to generate friction, especially for SaaS and streaming platforms.
How Much Do Chargebacks Cost?
It’s not just the loss of a sale. The average chargeback costs merchants $190 per dispute, according to a 2023 report from LexisNexis Risk Solutions. This number includes transaction value, shipping, bank fees, labor costs, and the long-term damage to your merchant reputation.
For low-margin businesses or high-ticket items, this cost adds up fast. You can lose hundreds or even thousands each month to disputes that could’ve been avoided—or successfully fought with better documentation.
Chargeback Win Rates (And Why They’re Misleading)
You might hear that the average merchant win rate is around 35%, but that number depends heavily on the reason for the dispute. According to Mastercard’s risk analytics unit, merchants have a much higher success rate when they respond quickly and include documentation like delivery confirmation, refund policy screenshots, and customer communication logs.
Friendly fraud cases are harder to win without digital evidence. But disputes related to shipping or refund delays can be reversed if your records are clear and complete.
What Happens When Your Chargeback Rate Gets Too High?
According to Visa’s Dispute Monitoring Program (VDMP) guidelines, any business that receives more than 100 disputes in a month and has a chargeback-to-transaction ratio above 0.9% may be placed in monitoring. Mastercard has similar thresholds under its Excessive Chargeback Program, starting at 1.0%.
Once flagged, your merchant account may be subject to:
- Monthly compliance reviews
- Higher processing fees
- Risk holdbacks or account freezes
- Permanent termination of payment processing privileges
Prevention Works: Proven Tactics for 2025
Let’s get specific. These are the strategies proven to lower chargeback volumes, according to the National Retail Federation’s recent fraud prevention roundtable and multiple card network reports:
Use Plain-Language Billing Descriptors
Avoid legal names or codes that look unfamiliar to customers. Use a recognizable brand name and include a support number.
Enable Real-Time Email Confirmations
Send immediate confirmation for purchases and shipments. Include clear contact info and order details to reduce confusion.
Implement Pre-Chargeback Alerts
These services notify you when a cardholder contacts their bank, giving you a chance to resolve the issue before it becomes a formal dispute.
Track Chargeback Reasons by Category
Use internal dashboards or tools to flag repeat issues. Most merchants never categorize their disputes, so they miss trends.
Review Your Cancelation and Refund Policies
Make them visible before checkout. Avoid “hidden” policies or dense fine print.
Final Thoughts
Chargeback statistics don’t just reflect industry trends; rather, they show you what’s happening in your business. Friendly fraud is getting smarter. Cardholders are getting faster. And the cost of inaction is rising. If your team isn’t watching your dispute rate or win ratio, you’re likely paying more than you realize.
By understanding what’s driving the numbers in 2025, you’ll be better equipped to respond, prevent, and adapt before disputes start costing more than they should.
Want Fewer Disputes? Then Start Using the Data
If you’re seeing chargebacks climb but you’re not sure why, or if your dispute win rate hasn’t moved in months, it’s time to go deeper than the surface stats.
Chargeblast helps you turn chargeback statistics into action. We show you why disputes are happening, not just when. Whether you’re losing revenue to friendly fraud or dealing with a flood of shipping-related claims, our platform can help you respond faster, prevent more, and keep your chargeback rate below the danger zone.
